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April 18, 2005
Crime
The TBC's strong suit, if you believe the polls, is law and order. Nobody really bought Tony's 'tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime' slogan (1997 ZNL manifesto). Currently ZNL says crime's down, TBC says crime's up.
As usual it's hard to pick the bones out of the conflicting claims. The BBC's Panorama made a fair fist of it last night, though with lots of the normal long winded distractions. If you don't believe me the full transcript is available here. My take on it was that there have been a couple of changes in the way statistics are gathered and presented since 1997 and, if you take account of them, crime is actually down a bit during ZNL's tenure. This was ascribed to a number of factors, the main ones being, more prison, more concentration on known offenders, and, particularly in regard to car theft, better security devices. They also emphasised that the trend started under the TBCs, and has perhaps slowed a little under ZNL. It seems clear that, as Howard said at the 1993 TBC party conference, 'Prison works'. Those who argue against this always make the point that recidivism rates of males are around 50%, but that begs the question 'what are prisons for?' In a touchy-feely ZNL world prisons would be there to 'cure' people, and maybe deter them, but what Howard was talking about is their effectiveness in keeping known criminals off the street so they can't offend. Having said that the actual actions of ZNL, as opposed to the PC rhetoric, seem to be largely following Howard's way.
The Mirror's editorial emphasised another point, which is that people's perception of the risk of crime is important, even if it's wrong.
The bottom line here is that it's hard to slip a sheet of paper between the likely actual actions of the two main parties, ZNL's PC rhetoric will alienate many, TBC's exagerations will also.
What is new in the last few years is the concept of ASBOs. (Antisocial behaviour orders) By use of these, antisocial yobs and yobbesses are kept out of areas where they persistently urinate on the street and cause a nuisance. All very praiseworthy, and apparently reasonably effective.
Question: - Shouldn't Paula Radcliffe be served with an ASBO? According to the Sun's report on the London Marathon "She could afford to spend a penny, though — or even two.... and minutes after she crossed the finishing-line to pick up £127,000 in prize money and bonuses to go with her £275,000 appearance fee." One hopes that's all it was, other reports spoke of stomach cramps, which makes one wonder...
15 Minutes of Fame
Sharon Whitlam. ZNL candidate for Arundel and South Downs. Campaigning on social inclusion and equality issues relating to service provision and employment in the public sector.
Last general election: -
Howard Flight Con got 23,969 votes
Derek Deedman LDem got 10,265 votes
Charles Taylor Lab got 9,488 votes
Robert Perrin UKIP got 2,167 votes
Best of luck, Sharon.
Today's Political Betting prediction: Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 72 seats
Posted by Flo Ting Voe Tah at April 18, 2005 12:05 PM