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April 28, 2005

Gender?

Channel 4 put the Bliar story up for grabs again. I still find it difficult to believe that it will have enough of an impact to affect the polls; people seem to believe that sometimes little porkies are necessary in the affairs of state.

However it really does lead to serious question marks over Lord Peter Goldsmith.

lord_goldsmith.jpg

Peter is clearly a clever bloke, having gained a double first at Gonville and Caius college, Cambridge around 35 years ago, but when there is even a hint that a deputy high court judge has opinions malleable enough to be guided by a politician it's time to call a halt. Peter needs to step down after the election and tell all; he has no credibility left, or at least not enough for his current postion.

What is now clear is that Biar took the country to war for the wrong reasons. Bad intelligence, bad legal advice, and a false sense of his own importance. This last is excellently shown in this letter from the Telegraph today. Nevil Johnson, Emeritus Fellow, Nuffield College, Oxford, wrote, inter alia: -

While defending his decision on the Iraq war and protesting that he would never apologise for the action he took, he remarked in relation to Saddam Hussein: "I decided to remove him." But this is nonsense. Neither Mr Blair nor this country had the means of removing Saddam.
What Mr Blair actually decided to do was give support to a decision by President George W. Bush to bring about regime change by removing Saddam. There are grounds on which Mr Blair's stance might be justified, especially in terms of Realpolitik and the abiding geo-political interests of this country. But this is not a case that Mr Blair now chooses to deploy.
Instead, he indulges in posturing and fantasising about what he has done.

I couldn't have put it better myself, and indeed, didn't.

You may have been wondering "why the title of today's article?", but I think you can see it coming together now. If not, here's a question for you: -

What do you call someone who get's the right answers for the wrong reasons, who is excessively concerned about their own appearance, and in no way feels embarassed to have a homosexual man as a close friend?

Answer: - Female.

The bottom line here is we're going to have the first cross dressing prime minister in our history. Well, that's progress for you I guess.

Deep 'oles

Still indicating a landslide; majorities of up to 148 seats are being predicted. This might be true but there are a lot of caveats being expressed about the marginals. It seems to be believed that ZNL is 'leaking' these stories to the press to make sure their supporters are scared enough to vote. Why a leak? Well, it's the old forbidden fruit trick. If the fourth estate believes that they've been clever to get hold of the story they'll print it, if it's in a press release, and clearly propaganda, they won't, or if they do say they think it's propaganda.

And of course, all this might be double bluff, so what's the truth?

The table below was generated by Mori, in a poll comissioned by the GMB. The GMB doesn't now like to be called the General and Municipal Boilermakers, still less refer to its origin in 1889 as Gas Workers and General Union, but be that as it may, they are still firmly behind ZNL. So essentially ZNL is asking for this information.

 

All

Labour supporters

Labour loyalists

Disaffected Labour

Disaffected Labour: Now support Lib Dems

 

(n=1,973)

(624)

(484)

(All — 256)

(96)

Conservative

15%

6

4

11

4

Labour

17%

39

41

10

9

Lib Dem

19%

14

13

30

55

Some other party

3%

2

1

2

1

None of these

10%

10

10

8

6

Don't know

35%

30

30

39

25

 

Note the heavy concentration on what unhappy labour voters might do. The bottom line here is that there's real concern about complacency, and you can bet ZNL will try to do something about it. If they get it right expect the landslide predicted here, rather than the smaller victory predicted by political betting.

In the context of polls you'll recall I believe polls about expectations (who do you think will win?) are better predictors than those about voting intentions (who will you vote for?). I am greatful for a political betting commenter who pointed me here. There's a nice graph on the site reproduced below.

Who will win 4 28.gif

Pretty certain then, but it doesn't give a majority, just a certainty.

15 Minutes of Fame

Emily Thornberry, ZNL candidate for Islington South and Finsbury.

She considers herself principled. This from her website:-

A principled politician.
The House of Commons needs principled politicians. Chris Smith took a courageous decision to oppose the war in Iraq, and I am proud to have stood alongside him on this issue. If elected, I will continue his tradition of reflecting the principled concerns of this community in Parliament.

But she is perfectly happy to tell you to do one thing and do another herself. She sends her child to Dame Alice Owen's School in Potters Bar, a selective school some 13 miles away from the constituency she wishes to represent in such a principled way. The old socialist slogan "What's yours is mine, and what's mine's my own", springs to mind.

Emily_Thornberry.jpg
A smiling hypocrite

Little doubt she'll win unfortunately. The table below shows what happened to her predecessor. (Last election she herself lost Canterbury. You'll recall from this article that Rocky van de Benderskum is standing there this year on behalf of the Legalise Cannabis Alliance. Obviously she couldn't face the competition...)

 

Islington South & Finsbury

Lab hold

Candidate

Party

Votes

Share

Change

Chris Smith *

Lab

15,217

53.9%

-8.6%

Keith Sharp

LDem

7,937

28.1%

+6.8%

Nicky Morgan

Con

3,860

13.7%

+0.7%

Janine Booth

SA

817

2.9%

 

Thomas McCarthy

Ind

276

1.0%

+0.5%

Charles Thomson

Stuck

108

0.4%

 

 

Turnout

28,215

47.4%

-16.3%

 

Majority

7,280

25.8%

 

 

 

Political Betting Predicted ZNL majority 76

Posted by Flo Ting Voe Tah at April 28, 2005 11:48 AM

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