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April 24, 2005
Trust
The Sundays are full of trust issues.
It's most odd. Everyone knows that Blair makes it up as he goes along. Most believe that, despite what all the enquiries said, he did 'sex up' the dossier, and many believe that the entry into war was illegal and unjustified, and yet none of it sticks. The Sunday Telegraph today published a list of 10 'lies' which it claims ZNL have promulgated so far during the campaign. Now while this is just a political view it's hard to argue with them too much. The point is people really don't care.
The same paper publishes a lovely story about the pinko BBC placing hecklers with microphones in a Howard meeting. So much for impartial coverage.
What was a little less partial was the Paxman interview. Much has been made of the '20 questions' which Blair dodged on illegal immigrant numbers, but it's hard to get excited about this. While it is true that there are estimates of the numbers concerned, almost by definition they cannot be accurate. The guys are illegal after all, they don't queue up to register. Now why Blair couldn't say that I do not know. Also during that interview he admitted leaking the name of Kelly to the press; always previously denied. Not impressive.
By contrast the TBCs are trying to be reasonably honest, but that does NOT end up being straightforward. One can be for war but not for the way we went to war, but it's not an argument that's going to turn the 'vote for me' light on in many people's heads.
In fact it seems that all this will lead to the lowest turnout for many a year yet the bookies don't seem to reflect this.
BlueSquare are offering evens that more than 62% turnout will be achieved, whereas Bet Direct are offering evens on a less than 62% turnout. Which says the answer will be 62%, which is odd given a 59% number last time. Go double your money but don't blame me.
Maybe the answer is in postal votes. A week ago the Times published the following list, and numbers have certainly grown since then: -
RISE IN POSTAL VOTING IN KEY MARGINALS
Cheadle: 485% to 8,226
Dorset South: 192% to 6,557
Thanet South: 219% to 1,129
Dorset Mid and North Poole: 318% to 4,306
Rugby and Kenilworth: 207% to 6,847
Norfolk North: 163% to 6,323
Weston-super-Mare: 240% to 6,323
Braintree: 333% to 10,000
Taunton: 282% to 11,700
Orpington: 246% to 6,429
As you'll see it's not just ZNL that stand to gain. Given that the judge in the recent voting fraud case in Birmingham said "Short of writing 'Steal Me' on the envelopes, it is hard to see what more could be done to ensure their coming into the wrong hands," it is nothing less than certain that fraud will occur, and on a large scale. Madness indeed.
15 Minutes of Fame
Sharon Buckle
Standing for Liverpool Walton.
Last time Peter Kilfoyle won for ZNL with 77.8% of the vote. Sharon, or Sibby as the TBC site curiously styles her, has done all sorts of good and clever things, but I doubt she's going to add 'being an MP' to the list any time soon.
Best of luck Sibby!
The Fazakerley Winner; Kilfoyle
Posted by Flo Ting Voe Tah at April 24, 2005 02:32 PM