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May 06, 2005

Astonishing

Psephologists will pore over this election for some time, but the core of it is in the table below, borrowed from the BBC.


2001 Results   2005 Results
No. Constituency Majority Party   Party New majority
1 Dumfries and Galloway 0.3%     LAB 5.7 %
2 Dorset South 0.3%     LAB 3.7 %
3 Braintree 0.7%     CON 7.3 %
4 Monmouth 0.9%     CON 9.9 %
5 Lancaster & Wyre 0.9%     CON 8.0 %
6 Kettering 1.2%     CON 5.9 %
7 Dundee East 1.3%     SNP 1.0 %
8 Northampton South 1.7%     CON 8.1 %
9 Ochil and South Perthshire 1.8%     LAB 1.5 %
10 Cardiff Central 1.9%     LD 15.5 %
11 Ynys Mon 2.4%     LAB 3.5 %
12 Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey 2.7%     LD 9.4 %
13 Welwyn Hatfield 2.8%     CON 13.3 %
14 Shipley 3.1%     CON 0.9 %
15 Clwyd West 3.2%     CON 0.4 %
16 Bexleyheath & Crayford 3.6%     CON 10.7 %
17 Milton Keynes North East 3.9%     CON 3.3 %
18 Hornchurch 4.2%     CON 1.3 %
19 Selby 4.3%     LAB 0.9 %
20 Hammersmith & Fulham 4.5%     CON 10.2 %
21 Thanet South 4.5%     LAB 1.6 %
22 Forest of Dean 4.6%     CON 4.3 %
23 Wellingborough 4.6%     CON 1.3 %
24 Ilford North 5.3%     CON 3.8 %
25 Rugby & Kenilworth 5.3%     CON 2.7 %
26 Gillingham 5.4%     LAB 0.6 %
27 Harwich 5.4%     CON 1.8 %
28 Enfield North 6%     LAB 4.7 %
29 Oldham East & Saddleworth 6%     LAB 8.3 %
30 Dunbartonshire East 6.3%     LD 8.7 %
31 Calder Valley 6.5%     LAB 2.9 %
32 Redditch 6.7%     LAB 6.7 %
33 Peterborough 7.2%     CON 6.6 %
34 Shrewsbury & Atcham 7.2%     CON 3.6 %
35 Dartford 7.4%     LAB 1.5 %
36 Scarborough & Whitby 7.5%     CON 2.7 %
37 Hove 7.6%     LAB 0.9 %
38 Bristol West 8%     LD 8.9 %
39 Preseli Pembrokeshire 8%     CON 1.6 %
40 Gloucester 8%     LAB 8.2 %
41 Putney 8.1%     CON 4.8 %
42 Hemel Hempstead 8.2%     CON 1.1 %
43 Na h-Eileanan an Iar 8.2%     SNP 10.4 %
44 Ribble South 8.2%     LAB 4.6 %
45 Finchley & Golders Green 8.5%     LAB 1.7 %
46 Wolverhampton South West 8.5%     LAB 6.9 %
47 Birmingham Yardley 8.6%     LD 9.1 %
48 The Wrekin 8.6%     CON 2.1 %
49 Croydon Central 8.7%     CON 0.2 %
50 Elmet 9.1%     LAB 9.6 %
51 Wimbledon 9.1%     CON 5.3 %
52 Stroud 9.1%     LAB 0.6 %
53 Keighley 9.2%     LAB 10.5 %
54 Sittingbourne & Sheppey 9.3%     LAB 0.2 %
55 High Peak 9.3%     LAB 1.5 %
56 Aberdeen South 9.5%     LAB 3.2 %
57 Stourbridge 9.5%     LAB 1.0 %
58 Brigg & Goole 9.6%     LAB 6.8 %
59 Falmouth & Camborne 9.7%     LD 3.9 %
60 Medway 9.8%     LAB 0.5 %
61 Colne Valley 9.9%     LAB 3.1 %
62 Wirral West 10%    

63 St Albans 10.2%     CON 3.0 %
64 Vale of Glamorgan 10.4%     LAB 3.8 %
65 Burton 10.4%     LAB 3.0 %
66 Hastings & Rye 10.5%     LAB 4.7 %
67 Pendle 10.8%     LAB 5.3 %
68 Bradford West 10.9%     LAB 8.3 %
69 Chatham & Aylesford 10.9%     LAB 5.5 %
70 Warwick & Leamington 11.1%     LAB 0.6 %
71 Gravesham 11.1%     CON 1.4 %
72 Great Yarmouth 11.3%     LAB 7.4 %
73 Wansdyke 11.3%     LAB 3.6 %
74 Stafford 11.3%     LAB 4.7 %
75 Tamworth 11.4%     LAB 5.9 %
76 Dover 11.6%     LAB 10.3 %
77 Rossendale & Darwen 11.9%     LAB 8.3 %
78 Watford 12%     LAB 2.3 %
79 Broxtowe 12%     LAB 4.7 %
80 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 12.1%     CON 3.9 %

In general, of course, the seats where the incumbent had a small majority were more likely to fall, but there are a substantial number of exceptions. ZNL held Dumfries and Galloway where they only had a tiny majority, though boundary changes render comparison difficult. They also held Dorset South however, where previously they had a majority of 153 seats, with a substantially increased majority.

By contrast they lost Gravesham where they previously had close to a 5000 majority.

Talking of Galloway, gorgeous George won. The campaign was vitriolic, ZNL candidate, Oona King, needed police protection after the tyres of her car were slashed. But this Blair Babe will be back. She was less than 30 years old when she got in in '97, and is media savvy and photogenic. Coupled with a first class degree from York and work experience in the EU and for the GMB, she'll find a by-election to win I'm sure.

Oona.jpg
Oona

George appears to be a fan of this blog. This is one of his campaign posters: -

blairliar.jpg

Remarkably similar to the one posted on this site here on the 26th.

What happens now?

Well, first of all everyone claims victory. The problem, of course, is, that ZNL are still in power, with a substantial, and workable, majority. This means that the disasters forecast here are likely to eventuate.

Mind you, as a predictor I'm a dead loss. The only crumb of comfort I have is that I'm not a gambler, I'd have lost my shirt backing my prediction of the ZNL majority with money. The other crumb of comfort is that almost no-one else came any closer to an accurate prediction.

The End

Well, not quite. In it's present form the end, true, but "I'll be back!"

Thanks to all who read this. The full blog is available as a word document, compiled in date order, for anyone who wants to see how the blog developed.

Posted by Flo Ting Voe Tah at May 6, 2005 10:28 AM

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