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May 03, 2005
Something Strange...
Labour is losing its grip on Finchley because its support has fallen from 46% to 40% since the 2001 election, with disaffected Labour supporters fuelling a sharp rise in the Liberal Democrat vote.
In Shipley, a Tory stronghold for more than 50 years, the ICM poll suggests that junior minister Chris Leslie will retain the seat he unexpectedly won at the age of 24 in 1997. Tenth on the Tory target list, it will take a swing of only 1.3% to the Tories to unseat him.Also The Grauniad.
Charles Kennedy increased the pressure on Tony Blair in the closing stages of the election campaign yesterday by publicly ending a pact to back Labour candidates in key marginal constituencies.
Now there are often anomalies at by-elections, so in the normal way of things you might expect the seat to revert to ZNL, but Yamin has powerful allies.
Vote Liberal Democrat, get Left-wing activistsDaily Telegraph editorial
ZNL poster. (OK then, a cartoon about it...)
The polls continue their reassuring litany of statistics giving ZNL some sort of landslide win, but in seats that are anything but rock solid there seems to be confusion.
So what's happening?
It seems that there are a number of things, and it certainly is beginning to seem that the spread betters are closer to the mark than the official polls.
This blog expected a landslide just a few days ago. This view was based on the flawed TBC strategy of drip feeding good new, the cheap attempts by them to buy votes, and the fact that they were treating the voters like children with their puerile handwritten slogans. But ZNL is catching up. Their voters now have to be told that if they don't vote for ZNL they may end up with someone they don't want. Well doh!
Lies over Iraq seem to leave only the libdems with any sort of credibility. Well them and George Galloway who said yesterday
"When I first called the prime minister a liar on air over his repeatedly denied plans to invade Iraq - in the wake of the Texas meeting with George Bush in spring 2002 - the BBC presenter was aghast at my presumption. Today there can scarcely be a sentient being in the land who would disagree."
One hates to agree with George (as you can see here), but on this occasion he's called it right.
All the parties this time around have had a strong focus on marginal seats but somehow the national media have not really reflected this. They've followed the leaders around, photographed the latest national posters, reported the latest speaches, but very little else.
Despite all this Martin Baxter is still forecasting a 140 majority. Martin is a Cambridge mathematician who has co-authored a number of books on financial mathematics and the mathematics of derivatives. Complex stuff but he should know how to analyse the numbers.
The political betting 'Balance of money' predictions have consistently shown little volatility, and little indication of a landslide majority. I suspect that people putting their money up have taken more account of the real situation on the ground than the national press, and are probably about right.
I withdraw the prediction of a landslide.
Political Betting's Balance of money Predicted ZNL majority 82 seats
Posted by Flo Ting Voe Tah at May 3, 2005 10:55 AM